{"id":14144,"date":"2020-11-16T05:09:41","date_gmt":"2020-11-15T20:09:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hyunsik.me\/wordpress\/?p=14144"},"modified":"2023-02-24T05:06:38","modified_gmt":"2023-02-23T20:06:38","slug":"%ec%a7%a7%ea%b3%a0-%ec%89%ac%ec%9a%b4-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c2008%eb%85%84-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad%eb%b0%9c-%ea%b8%80%eb%a1%9c%eb%b2%8c-%ea%b8%88%ec%9c%b5%ec%9c%84%ea%b8%b0-2007%eb%85%84-%ec%84%9c%eb%b8%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/hyunsik.me\/wordpress\/?p=14144","title":{"rendered":"[\uc9e7\uace0 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uacbd\uc81c] 2008\ub144 \ub300\uce68\uccb4\/\ubbf8\uad6d\ubc1c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30(\uc11c\ube0c \ud504\ub77c\uc784 \ubaa8\uae30\uc9c0 \uc0ac\ud0dc)\ub294 \ubb34\uc5c7\uc778\uac00?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[mqe][\/mqe]<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"http:\/\/hyunsik.me\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Mortgage-1-1024x445.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"580\"\/><\/p>\n<p>2008\ub144 \ubbf8\uad6d\ubc1c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30, \ub300\uce68\uccb4\ub294 2007\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784 \ubaa8\uae30\uc9c0 \uc0ac\ud0dc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\uc5b8\uc81c\ubd80\ud130\uc778\uac00 1929\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30\ub294 \ub300\uacf5\ud669(Great Depression), 2008\ub144\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30\ub294 \ub300\uce68\uccb4(Great Recession), 2020\ub144\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30\ub294 \ub300\ubd09\uc1c4(Great Lockdown)\ub77c\uace0 \ubd80\ub974\ub294 \uac83 \uac19\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc740 \ub300\uce68\uccb4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784 \ubaa8\uae30\uc9c0 \uc0ac\ud0dc \uc774\uc804\uae4c\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud574\ub3c4 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc8fc\ud0dd \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \ub298 \uc624\ub974\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc5f0\ud788 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc77c\ubc18\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc740 \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \uc9c4\ud589\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\uace0 \ucd5c\ucd08 Prime \ub4f1\uae09, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 Alt-A \ub4f1\uae09\uc5d0\uac8c \ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \ud574\uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uadf8 \ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c MBS\ub97c \ud310\ub9e4\ud558\uc5ec \uc6d0\uae08\uc744 \ud68c\uc218\ud558\uace0, \uadf8\uac83\uc744 \uad6c\ub9e4\ud55c \ud22c\uc790\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc774 MBS\ub97c \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(MBS\ub97c \ub2f4\ubcf4\ub85c \ud55c CDO)\uc744 \ud310\ub9e4\ud558\uc5ec \uc774\ub4dd\uc744 \uc5bb\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub610 \uc774 MBS\uc640 CDO\ub97c \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubb36\uc740 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488\uacfc CDO\uac00 \uc798\ubabb\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubcf4\ud5d8\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc0c1\ud488\uc778 CDS\ub3c4 \ud310\ub9e4\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub610 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4\uc758 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc0c1\ud488\ub4e4\uc744 \uad6c\ub9e4\ud558\uc5ec \ub192\uc740 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \uc5bb\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>MBS\ub294 Mortgage Backed Security\uc758 \uc57d\uc790\ub85c \uc8fc\ud0dd\uc800\ub2f9\uc99d\uad8c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc8fc\ud0dd\uc800\ub2f9\ucc44\uad8c\uc744 \ub2f4\ubcf4\ub85c \ubc1c\ud589\ud55c \uc99d\uad8c\uc774\ub2e4. CDO\ub294 Collateralized Debt Obligation\uc758 \uc57d\uc790\ub85c \ubd80\ucc44\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80\uc99d\uad8c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. \uae08\uc735\uae30\uad00\uc774 \ubcf4\uc720\ud55c \ub300\ucd9c\ucc44\uad8c\uc774\ub098 \ud68c\uc0ac\ucc44\ub97c \ubb36\uc5b4\uc11c \uc720\ub3d9\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a8 \uc2e0\uc6a9\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0bc\ud488\uc774\ub2e4. CDS\ub294 Credit Default Swap\uc758 \uc57d\uc790\ub85c \uc2e0\uc6a9\ubd80\ub3c4\uc2a4\uc640\ud504\uc774\ub2e4. \uc77c\uc885\uc758 \ubcf4\ud5d8\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li>\uc8fc\ud0dd\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uba74, \uc774\ub4e4 \uc911 \ub204\uad6c\ub3c4 \uc190\ud574\ub97c \ubcf4\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\uc774\ub2e4.(\ubb3c\ub860 \uacb0\uad6d \ubb34\uc8fc\ud0dd\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc190\ud574\ub97c \ubcf4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\uaca0\uc9c0\ub9cc&#8230;)<\/li>\n<li> \uc774 \ub54c, \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\uc735\uac00\uac00 \ub3c4\ub355\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubd80\ud328\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \ubb38\uc81c\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc0c1\ud488\ub4e4\uc758 \ud310\ub9e4\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4 \uae08\uc735\uac00\uc758 \ub2f9\uc5f0\ud55c \ud589\ub3d9\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\uace0 \ud589\ub3d9\ud55c \uac83 \ubfd0\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li> \uc601\ud654 <\ube45\uc1fc\ud2b8>, <\uc778\uc0ac\uc774\ub4dc \uc7a1>\uc640 \uae30\ud0c0 \uacbd\uc81c \uad00\ub828 \ub2e4\ud050\uba58\ud130\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc800\ub7f0 \ud615\ud0dc\uc758 \uc0c1\ud488\ub4e4\uc740 \ud310\ub9e4\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\uace7, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774 \uc0c1\ud488\ub4e4\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \uae30\ubcf8\uc774 \ub418\ub294 MBS\uac00 \ucd94\uac00\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud544\uc694\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uc548\uc804\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ub418\ub294 \ub4f1\uae09, SubPrime \ub4f1\uae09\uc758 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \ud574\uc8fc\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784 \ub4f1\uae09\uc774 \ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \uc0c1\ud658\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud574\ub3c4 \uc8fc\ud0dd\uc744 \ud314\uc544\uc11c \ud68c\uc218\ud558\uba74 \ub418\ubbc0\ub85c, \uc8fc\ud0dd\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ud55c \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \ub420 \uc77c\uc740 \uc5c6\uc5c8\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.(\uc8fc\ud0dd\uac00\uaca9\uc740 \ub298 \uc624\ub974\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\uc73c\ubbc0\ub85c)<\/p>\n<p>\ub610\ud55c \ub2f9\uc2dc \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c\uc740 \uac1a\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc9d1\ub9cc \uc740\ud589\uc5d0 \ube7c\uc557\uae30\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\uc600\ub2e4.(\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub098\ub77c\ub3c4 \ub300\ucd9c \uc870\uac74\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc774\ub7f0 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud558\ub2e4.) \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784 \ub4f1\uae09\uc758 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc740 \ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \uac1a\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uac8c \ub418\ub3c4 \ud070 \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \ub9ce\uc774 \ubc1b\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uc5ec\ub7ec\uac00\uc9c0 \ubb38\uc81c\ub85c \uc778\ud574\uc11c \uc774 \uc8fc\ud0dd\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \uc544\ub798\uc640 \uac19\ub2e4.(\ub098\ubb34\uc704\ud0a4\uc758 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \ucc38\uace0\ud588\uc74c)<\/p>\n<p>\uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784 \uacc4\uce35\uc774 \ube5a\uc744 \uac1a\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uac8c \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ub294 \uc77c\ubd80\ub7ec \uc548 \uac1a\uac8c \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \u2192 CDO\uc758 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub2e4 \ubabb\ud574 \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\ub2e4. \u2192 \uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ub418\uc5c8\ub358 \uc218\uc870 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ub3c8\uc774 \ud558\ub298\ub85c \ub0a0\uc544\uac00\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\ub2e4! \u2192 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ub2e4\uae09\ud788 \uc790\uc2e0\ub4e4\uc758 \ub3c8\uc744 \ube7c\ub0b4\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\ub2e4. \u2192 CDO\ub4e4\uc740 \uc6b0\ub7c9\uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0\uc11c \ubd80\uc2e4\uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ubaa8, \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 CDO\ub85c \uac00\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub358 \ud22c\uc790\uc740\ud589\uacfc \uae08\uc735\uae30\uad00\uc740 \uacf5\ud669\uc5d0 \ube60\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> \ub300\ucd9c\uc790\uac00 \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \uac1a\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544\ub3c4, \uc740\ud589\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub9ce\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\ud55c \ub2f4\ubcf4\uc778 \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub9cc \uac00\uc838\uac08 \uc218 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ub300\ucd9c\uc790\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc8fc\ud0dd\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ud070 \uc561\uc218\uc758 \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \uac1a\uc744 \uc774\uc720\uac00 \uc5c6\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. <!--\uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uba74 1000\ub9cc\uc6d0\uc9dc\ub9ac \uc8fc\ud0dd\uc744 800\ub9cc\uc6d0 \ub300\ucd9c\ud558\uc5ec \uc0c0\ub294\ub370, \uc8fc\ud0dd \uac00\uaca9\uc774 500\ub9cc\uc6d0\uc774 \ub41c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub300\ucd9c\uc790\ub294 \ucd5c\ucd08\uc5d0 \uc9c0\ubd88\ud55c 200\ub9cc\uc6d0\ub9cc \uc190\ud574\ub97c \ubcf4\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc740\ud589\uc740 300\ub9cc\uc6d0(800\ub9cc\uc6d0-500\ub9cc\uc6d0)\uc744 \uc190\ud574\ubcf4\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\uc774\ub2e4. \ud574\ub2f9 \ub300\ucd9c\uc790\ub294 \uc8fc\ud0dd\uc744 \ud3ec\uae30\ud558\uba74 200\ub9cc\uc6d0\uc744 \uc190\ud574\ubcf4\uace0 \ub05d\ub098\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.--><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uad75\uc9c1\ud55c \ud22c\uc790\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc740 \ud30c\uc0b0\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ub2e4\ub978 \uae30\uc5c5\uc5d0 \uc778\uc218\ub418\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\ub2e4. \ubca0\uc5b4\uc2a4\ud134\uc2a4, \ub9ac\uba3c \ube0c\ub77c\ub354\uc2a4, \uba54\ub9b4\ub9b0\uce58 \ub4f1. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 2008\ub144 9\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 AIG \uc758 \ud30c\uc0b0\uc744 \ub9c9\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub4dc\ub514\uc5b4 \uad6c\uc81c\uae08\uc735\uc744 \uc2e4\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \uc804 \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0 \ub2e4\uc591\ud558\uac8c \uc88b\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ucce4\uc73c\uba70, \uc6d0\ub798 \uae08\uc735\uc5c5\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uba85\ud588\ub358, \uc798\uc0ac\ub294 \ub098\ub77c\uc778 \uc544\uc774\uc2ac\ub780\ub4dc\ub294 \ud55c \ub54c, \uad6d\uac00\uac00 \ubd95\uad34\ub418\uc5c8\uc744 \uc815\ub3c4\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \ubb38\uc81c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd84\uc11d\uc740 \ub2e4\uc591\ud558\ub2e4. &#8220;\uc2e0\uc790\uc720\uc8fc\uc758\uc758 \ub3c4\ub355\uc801 \ubb38\uc81c\uc774\ub2e4.&#8221;, &#8220;\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uac1c\uc785\uc774 \ub2a6\uc5c8\ub358 \uac83\uc774 \ubb38\uc81c\uc600\ub2e4.&#8221; \ub4f1 \ub9ce\uc740 \ubd84\uc11d\uacfc \ub9ce\uc740 \uad00\ub828 \ub17c\ubb38\uc774 \uc874\uc7ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud655\uc2e4\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uc774 \uc774\ud6c4\ub85c \ucf00\uc778\uc2a4\uc8fc\uc758\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc8fc\ubaa9\ubc1b\uac8c \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uacfc \uc804 \uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc778 \uc800\uae08\ub9ac \uc2dc\ub300\uac00 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uace0\uc804\uc8fc\uc758(\uc2e0\uc790\uc720\uc8fc\uc758)\uc640 \ucf00\uc778\uc2a4\uc8fc\uc758\ub294 \ubc88\uac08\uc544\uac00\uba70 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c\ub2e4. \uc0ac\uc2e4 \ub530\uc9c0\uace0 \ubcf4\uba74 \uc774\ub3c4\uc800\ub3c4 \uc544\ub2cc \uc2dc\ub300\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\uc0ac\uc2e4 \uc774 \ubb38\uc81c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uac83\uc740 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud604\uc7ac\uae4c\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc644\uc804\ud558\uac8c \ud574\uacb0\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4. \uc5b4\uca4c\uba74 \uc11c\uc11c\ud788 \ud574\uacb0\ub420 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774\uc5c8\ub294\uc9c0\ub294 \ubaa8\ub974\uaca0\uc73c\ub098, \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ud39c\ub354\ubbf9\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uba70 \uc804\ud600 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0 \uc811\uc5b4\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc640 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \uc54c \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \uacf3\uc73c\ub85c \ud750\ub974\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>[mqe][\/mqe]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[mqe][\/mqe] 2008\ub144 \ubbf8\uad6d\ubc1c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30, \ub300\uce68\uccb4\ub294 2007\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784 \ubaa8\uae30\uc9c0 \uc0ac\ud0dc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc5b8\uc81c\ubd80\ud130\uc778\uac00 1929\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30\ub294 \ub300\uacf5\ud669(Great Depression), 2008\ub144\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30\ub294 \ub300\uce68\uccb4(Great Recession), 2020\ub144\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30\ub294 \ub300\ubd09\uc1c4(Great Lockdown)\ub77c\uace0 \ubd80\ub974\ub294 \uac83 \uac19\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc740 \ub300\uce68\uccb4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc774\ub2e4. \uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784 \ubaa8\uae30\uc9c0 \uc0ac\ud0dc \uc774\uc804\uae4c\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud574\ub3c4 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc8fc\ud0dd \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \ub298 \uc624\ub974\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc5f0\ud788 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc77c\ubc18\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc740 \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \uc9c4\ud589\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\uace0 \ucd5c\ucd08 Prime 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